Will Israel attack Iran?

Israel has been outspoken in its warnings that Iran is edging closer and closer to reaching nuclear weapons capacity, something that, should it be achieved, Israel would regard as a genuine threat to its existence. Indeed, Israel has long viewed Iran’s potential nuclear capacity as an “existential threat”, with talk of a pre-emptive strike dating back to the late 1990’s – but what has changed? And could this now be a realistic possibility?

In recent years Israel has attempted to slow Iran’s nuclear programme with a number of covert operations, cyber attacks and assassinations – but this has only delayed its progress. Iran itself has been fairly restrained in its responses to these actions, instead limiting itself to an ongoing ‘shadow-war’ between the two states that has also involved minor attacks on civilian shipping – albeit one which recently led to the recent deaths of two maritime workers caught up in an apparent drone IED strike on an Israeli managed ship. Could it instead be playing the long game and keeping retaliation to a minimum so it can become a nuclear power? With reports that Iran may now be as little as one month away from being able to develop a nuclear bomb, it may not be long until we find out.

The imminent threat of Iran achieving a nuclear weapon has the potential to be a game changer in the region. With Israel repeatedly on the record that it will not allow Iran to attain nuclear arms, under any circumstances, and insistent in its belief that Tehran is getting ever closer to doing so, is the time now approaching that Israel will take this long-discussed pre-emptive direct strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities? And if so, what would such an attack look like?

On Friday, 15th October, Intelligence Fusion CEO Michael McCabe, and Max Taylor, our Senior Regional Analyst for the Middle East and Asia, held a live Webinar to discuss the potential for direct military conflict between Israel and Iran, including: 

View the full on-demand replay of the webinar below